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QUARTERLY REPORT
THE PLATINUM FUND QUARTERLY REPORT
AS AT 31 DECEMBER 1996
Performance
The Platinum Fund Limited achieved 0.7% growth over the last quarter
in comparison to the 4.4% gained by the FT World Accumulation
Index (in US$ terms). Both Japan and Korea experienced sharp
declines (-12% and -20% respectively), whilst Hong Kong and the
UK were up over 12%. Both France and the US also gained over
8%.
Commentary
This last year has not been one of our best. There have been
many opportunities and yet our returns have been modest. The
drag on our performance has emanated from three sources. Firstly,
our concern about earnings growth and attendant valuations of
the US market persuaded us to fully hedge our US portfolio. Secondly,
we had three significant stocks - mentioned in the September
review - that lost money. Thirdly, our investments in Korea,
which although among the cheapest in Asia, exposed us to the worst
performing market, bar Thailand. The positive result achieved
was thus carried by our European, Brazilian and Japanese investments
- the latter outperforming a market which retreated through the
year.
Shown below is the performance of the MSCI and its components
for 1996. Note the heavy weighting of the US market. It is quite
evident that misreading that market was the most expensive decision
of the year. The third column shows the return from various markets
over 5 years.
| MSCI Indexes (US$/Capital) |
1996 1 Year Performance |
MSCI Weightings as at 30.9.96 |
1991-1996 Compound Annual % Change |
 |
| US |
21.4% |
42% |
12.6% |
| Japan |
(16.0%) |
21% |
(0.3%) |
| UK |
23.3% |
10% |
9.0% |
| Europe (excluding UK) |
16.2% |
19% |
11.6% |
| Pacific (excluding Japan) |
17.8% |
4% |
14.6% |
| Other |
|
4% |
|
| World |
11.7% |
100% |
8.9% |
During 1996, the US market was driven by stocks that we would
tend to avoid. Uncertainties about the strength of economic growth
in the US - and globally - led investors to focus on companies
with predictable and visible earnings. As discussed previously,
this narrowing of interest to companies which were already highly
rated is reminiscent of the "Nifty Fifty" era.
For 1997, it is likely that the headwind of corporate restructuring
and fiscal austerity will act as a drag on world economic growth.
This should allow easy money conditions and lowish interest rates
to persist and could continue to support "Nifty Fifty"
type stocks. Nevertheless, we believe that better opportunities
lie elsewhere. In particular, in Europe several of our holdings
that made very small contributions in 1996 and which fall into
the category of convergence or restructuring stories, are now
closer to maturity. In Japan, our holdings have demonstrated
good earnings growth, which together with a reappraisal of their
valuations relative to the Japanese market, is resulting in these
companies showing strong price appreciation relative to a weak
host market. Our exposure to the smaller markets of Korea, Brazil
and Indonesia is the result of factors peculiar to each country.
We believe Korea will soon benefit from easier monetary conditions
and will greatly benefit from an improvement in world trade.
In the case of Indonesia, the market is already responding to
low interest rates and accelerating profit growth in the financial
sector, while Brazil is gradually making headway with its reforms.
Portfolio Changes
The team has been working hard to find promising companies which
are yet to be appreciated, in line with our established methodology.
Valuations of these companies should converge toward their counterparts
in currently favoured markets. You will notice that among the
main holdings we have sold IBM and Delta Airlines which reached
our price objectives towards the end of the year. In Europe we
have acquired seven new positions and sold Tabacalera, while in
Japan we have acquired two new holdings. The positions in both
Indonesia and Brazil were also expanded. Some of these new companies
are outlined later in this report.
The fund has all but eliminated its earlier themes of shipping,
newsprint and technology, the latter having produced good results
and the former two mixed results.
Disposition Of Assets
| Region |
31 December 1996 |
30 September 1996 |
 |
| Japan |
31.3% |
27.0% |
| Western Europe |
27.7% |
23.6% |
| South America |
10.8% |
7.1% |
| Other Asia |
10.2% |
8.3% |
| North America |
6.1% |
12.1% |
| Australia |
1.9% |
2.0% |
| Other |
0.5% |
0.3% |
| Total Invested |
88.5% |
80.4% |
Top Ten Holdings (as at 31 December 1996)
| Stock |
Country |
Industry |
% Holding |
 |
| Fuji Photo Film |
Japan |
Photographic Equipment |
4.3% |
| Canon |
Japan |
Office Equipment |
3.5% |
| Sekisui House |
Japan |
Home Builders |
2.8% |
| Lagardere |
France |
Media/Defence |
2.7% |
| Yamanouchi Pharm. |
Japan |
Pharmaceutical |
2.6% |
| Lyonnaise des Eaux |
France |
Utility |
2.1% |
| Nintendo |
Japan |
Home Entertainment |
2.1% |
| Olivetti |
Italy |
Telecoms/Computers |
2.0% |
| Daimler Benz |
Germany |
Autos |
1.9% |
| Pentland |
UK |
Clothing |
1.8% |
| TOTAL |
|
|
25.8% |
New Investment Ideas
Guinness (UK)
Guinness, better known for its stout beer than its portfolio of
spirit brands such as Johnnie Walker, Dewar's and Bell's Whisky,
and Gordons and Tanqueray Gin, could produce interesting returns
over the next three years. While globalisation and global brands
are all the rage among investment professionals, Guinness is being
neglected because of its apparent dull earnings prospects.
We think things are changing. Travel, media and other influences
are encouraging people to try something different: we are intrigued
by the resurgence of cigars and the openings of cigar bars, and
the general retro tendency à la Harley Davidson.
A whole generation of drinkers were missed by the spirit companies
but a swing back in fashion is plausible.
Apart from this rather flimsy hypothesis, what will cause a shift
in drinking patterns with the current emphasis on health consciousness
(though this doesn't seem to be impeding drug usage)! The most
important change is the realisation by the large spirit companies
that they had erred in favour of the developing markets of Latin
America and South East Asia at the expense of their traditional
strongholds. Further, the companies appear to have realised that
in these markets they had misdirected their advertising spend
to the older drinker rather than targeting the younger generation.
They had therefore done little to arrest the general shift to
white spirits and wine that characterised the late seventies/early
eighties. As a consequence, sales of Scotch whisky in the largest
markets, the US and the UK, have halved over the last fifteen
years, largely offsetting strong growth in new markets.
The change in emphasis in media spend comes at an opportune time.
There are already signs of nascent recovery in scotch and - surprisingly
- gin, evidenced by volume gains in the US. On the theme of change
in tastes, it is also interesting to see the surge in Guinness
stout sales in the US, possibly assisted by the company's sponsorship
of Irish Pubs.
The attraction of this investment is that there is no expectation
of improved growth in the stock price. Guinness earns an above
average return on invested funds, has the prospect of growing
at least in line with the UK market (even without stabilisation
of consumption in the US), and yet trades on a PE of 12x 1997
earnings. Furthermore, these earnings largely represent free
cash flow. For a company that has already established a predominant
global presence, both in terms of branding and global distribution,
and which is currently well into a rejuvenation program with a
new spirits division head, this is a very modest valuation.
Hornbach (Germany)
Otmar Hornbach has built up an enviable record by adopting the
best retailing practices to suit German needs. He pioneered the
concept of out-of-town DIY stores with accompanying garden centres,
similar in concept to Home Depot and Castorama. The stock price
reflected his success and quadrupled between 1990-95 to peak at
DM 200. A continued commitment to geographic expansion, a weaker
German economy and miserable weather have all conspired to produce
lower profits in the current year, causing the stock price to
halve.
The obvious question has been whether there has been a fundamental
deterioration in the business. Competition has intensified as
imitators have followed Hornbach's formula and indeed floor space
is growing faster than trend sales growth in the industry, which
is about 4% pa real. However, competition is not all bad. Experience
shows that on occasions when competitors open nearby, sales drop
sharply, but then gradually recover to higher levels than before.
Like most investment opportunities there are always some uncertainties.
Herr Hornbach is now in his sixties and there is concern about
management succession. Also the company has had some problems
with systems development and had to scrap recently developed software.
This could be construed as poor management of a key function.
However the expansion programme is on track with 19 stores providing
a 40% increase in selling space being scheduled for the next three
years.
Our assessment is that this remains a company able to achieve
well above average growth and yet the market is focusing on the
near term uncertainties. A little help from the German consumer
- and there are signs of sales improvements - will do wonders
for profits.
Nintendo (Japan)
Nintendo has fallen a long way from its former exalted position
as the best performing stock on the Tokyo market. Over the years
the company had built up a dominant position as the leading supplier
of interactive home-use games. Imitators naturally emerged and
today this former purveyor of playing cards, finds itself up against
strong competition like Sega and Sony and other vendors of CD-ROM
based games suitable for use on PCs.
Nintendo's trump card however is the power and sophistication
of its recently launched Nintendo 64-bit game machine. Working
in collaboration with the champion of 3D virtual reality, Silicon
Graphics, the company has developed an exclusive chip that critics
reckon produces the most realistic games around. By leap frogging
from 16-bit directly to 64-bit, the company exposed itself to
delays and a tiring product line-up both of which adversely affected
sales, profits and investor sentiment.
The focus of investor concern now relates to two principal areas.
Firstly, the potential threat of PC based games with powerful
sponsors like Microsoft and Sony taking over the market and sidelining
Nintendo, rather in the way Apple lost its prominence in PCs.
The question being asked is: why should someone buy a US$200
game player, when a PC costing, say, $2000 can do nearly as good
a job as well as performing an educational role. The second concern
relates to the shortage of game titles and that these are delivered
by cartridge rather than the more common device of CD-ROMs.
Both of these concerns are valid, however Nintendo has built up
a "must-have" reputation through excellent distribution
and innovation. From a technical viewpoint, a strong case can
be mounted for a separate machine for games played via a TV screen.
Game critics are almost unanimous in their praise for the 3D
graphic functions from the new offering and indeed it is partly
the complexity of writing to this platform that is impeding the
release of new titles. This leading edge technology of course
also attracts the leading software writers.
The final proof lies in consumer acceptance. To date this is
most encouraging with the company failing to keep up with demand,
even though production schedules have increased to 0.5 million
units per month. Software output is also ramping up and the company
anticipates 22 titles by March 1997. With the 64-bit machine
still to be released outside the US and Japan, and the associated
build-up in software sales, the prospects for a dramatic rebound
in profits in the year to March 1998 are most promising.
Other
We mentioned earlier the additions to our holdings in Brazil and
Indonesia. In the case of Brazil, new holdings are Petrobras
and Electrobras, both of which will benefit from continued structural
reform. In Indonesia, we have taken the view that interest rates
will continue to fall significantly and have bought companies
that will benefit from this tendency, notably the housing developer,
Ciputra and Bank Danamon.
Summary
The above commentary may give you some sense of the way we approach
the problem of investing and indeed it may diverge from some preconceived
notions. Clearly, those who follow a more conventional path of
pursuing nearby earnings visibility, have done better than us
over the last 18 months. We do not believe that this pattern
will necessarily hold going forward.
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