The COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic has shaken the global population to its core. The personal toll is enormous, and the fear, immense. In this special feature I will explain what the virus is, what makes it unique and the progress that has been made in developing a treatment and vaccine. The collaboration between pharma, biotech and medtech companies, as well as researchers has been astounding and gives me great confidence that we will win this fight.
Within a very short period of time, the world has shifted its focus to a virus that measures roughly 50-200 nanometres. Suddenly, we have all become familiar with scientific terms such as viral spread, PCR testing capacity, antibodies, viral shedding and many more. Economists have become epidemiologists hoping to model the outbreak, while we have also witnessed the limitations of many healthcare systems.
Viruses are a part of life. There are plant viruses, animal viruses and viruses that infect bacteria. Over time, outbreaks occur and can be devastating. Polio was an example of a seasonal, frightening viral epidemic in the 1940s and 1950s that was eventually eliminated by vaccination. There is no reason to believe that we will not be successful combating SARS-CoV-2, the new coronavirus.
SARS-CoV-2 is a member of the Coronaviridae family, a rather large clan with two subfamilies (Coronavirinae and Torovirinae) that can infect humans as well as animals. These subfamilies have several members and there are four coronaviruses that we have all most likely had exposure to. They cause mild symptoms, such as the common cold and require no diagnostic testing. However, occasionally we see a coronavirus that causes very unpleasant diseases, such as SARS (2002/2003), MERS (2012/2015) and now COVID-19.
This latest virus outbreak will change our view about this viral family, vaccination, pandemic preparedness and antiviral therapeutics. It is highly plausible that we may require vaccination against this culprit with additional booster shots annually. Given what we are seeing today, this new coronavirus is here to stay.
Viruses are simple but sophisticated creatures. They have an outer shell and sometimes an inner one as well. Inside, is the viral genome, often with some viral functional proteins attached to it. The outer shell tends to have family-specific characteristics that determine which and how the virus infects its host. Coronaviruses like respiratory and gastrointestinal tracts. So-called spike proteins that sit on the outer shell of the virus have a high affinity for proteins localised in our throat, lungs and gut. It is this outer shell that disintegrates when it contacts soap, hence the reason why washing our hands is so crucial. Similarly, we as the host, are crucial for the survival of the virus. Viruses cannot replicate by themselves, they need the host’s ‘machinery’ to multiply. Viruses are masters at exploiting the host’s machinery and they know how to adapt, so it is essential we deny them any opportunity to find another host by practising social distancing. Some viruses are very clever, they have worked out that causing mild disease is better as the host keeps socialising, which guarantees survival of the virus, while the more aggressive (not so clever) viruses cause devastating diseases and hence eliminate themselves quickly.
SARS-CoV-2 falls into the sophisticated category as it replicates in the upper respiratory tract (e.g. throat), causing mild symptoms vs. its cousin SARS-CoV that settles deep in the lungs. Transmission from the throat is much easier and hence requires drastic actions to slow it down and stop its spread. Scientists are closing in on this virus a lot faster than we have ever seen before.
What we learnt from HIV
Thanks to the advanced scientific tools we use today in the laboratory, we have been able to identify and study
SARS-CoV-2 and its lifecycle at a rapid speed. It is worthwhile revisiting the AIDS/HIV epidemic in the 1980s to understand how far we have come. In 1981, the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) started to see patients with diseases that occurred due to a malfunctioning immune system. However, nobody knew what was causing this immune deficiency. A year later, the disease was called AIDS (Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome). In 1983, French scientists postulated that a retrovirus could be the cause of AIDS, which was confirmed by US scientists the following year. In 1985, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved the first commercial HIV blood test that detected antibodies in a patient’s blood. A molecular test, similar to what is being used today to detect SARS-CoV-2, was only available for HIV in the mid-1990s. The first antiviral drug was approved in 1987.
Compare this timetable to the current pandemic. Late last year, news emerged from China about a respiratory disease that did not test positive for any known respiratory pathogen. It quickly emerged that it was due to a new coronavirus. The genome of the virus was rapidly sequenced and distributed to scientists globally and molecular tests were established. Biotechs and pharmaceutical (pharma) companies quickly looked inside their drug cabinets for potential therapies as well as how their technologies could be applied to make specific drugs and vaccines for this new virus. It has been a phenomenal global effort. Currently, we are awaiting clinical trial data for the first repurposed antiviral therapy (Gilead Science’s Remdesivir, which was originally developed to treat Ebola), while the first vaccine is also already being tested in humans. It may feel like a long time but it has only been months.
The virus itself is being studied intensely by several groups around the world. The spike proteins that make up the outer shell have been analysed and scientists have elucidated the structure of one of the viral functional proteins called protease, which is immensely important, as it will allow scientists to develop anti-protease inhibitors, which were crucial in treating HIV.
Scientists are simultaneously studying the immune system’s response to the virus and have identified Interleukin-6 (IL-6) as a key mediator, hence Roche’s IL-6 Antibody Actemra is being used to treat COVID-19 in some hospitals, while clinical trials are ongoing. Meanwhile, Sanofi/Regeneron’s IL-6 antibody has also just entered clinical trials for COVID-19.
We know from previous viral outbreaks that patients who have recovered from a virus will have produced antibodies that neutralise the virus, so Japanese pharmaceutical company, Takeda has started collecting plasma from patients who have recovered from COVID-19 to give to patients currently suffering from the disease. CSL has recently joined Takeda to work together on such a plasma-derived product.
Regeneron, a US biotech, is using its antibody engineering capability to find antibodies that target the virus. Those antibodies should move into human testing later this year. Alnylam and Vir Biotechnology are working on a long-acting small interfering RNA (siRNA) therapeutics targeting the virus. Vir is also working on antibodies with GSK.
The ability to explore and investigate so many different drug modalities was not possible during other viral outbreaks as we did not have the technological capability.
There has been a lot of debate about the lack of testing capacity, but overall, the scientific community, including biotechs, pharma and medtechs, have all shown great leadership in this pandemic. The collaboration and sheer speed in detecting the virus and developing a treatment have been unprecedented. Not that long ago, pharma and biotechs were in the political crossfire regarding high drug prices. In this pandemic, the industry has the opportunity to set the record straight and show their full capabilities. In years to come, this industry, along with the medical profession, will be viewed through a very different lens.
Vaccines, the holy grail to combat infectious diseases, are also experiencing immense activity by traditional vaccine companies and also by biotechs who use new transformative technologies, such as messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA).
The concept of a vaccine is simple. A venture capitalist recently described it in the easiest possible way; likening a vaccine to sending a “wanted criminal dossier” to the immune system, that shows the immune cells what to look out for and prepare to capture the ‘criminal’. Sometimes, the immune cells are able to see the picture of the criminal just once to ensure the immune cells can fight off the criminal, other times, they need to be reminded again i.e. get a booster.
The criminal dossier can come in different forms. It can be very detailed (a weakened form of the virus) or it may only have some very poignant features of the criminal (parts of the virus that are very immunogenic).
It takes time for laboratories to make a virus that replicates the criminal dossier. Firstly, scientists need to figure out how best to make it, or which part of the virus they should focus on. Manufacturing then has to be scaled up, which all requires a significant amount of money. The vaccine then needs to be tested at length and many millions/billions of dosages have to be manufactured. Today, four companies dominate the vaccine industry (GSK, Pfizer, Sanofi, Merck) with Australian company, CSL a distant fifth and Johnson & Johnson always keen to participate.
The potential long lead times and significant upfront costs have, however, not deterred Sanofi and Johnson & Johnson from applying their more traditional vaccine-making approach. Both companies are actively working on the criminal dossier and Johnson & Johnson is due to start trials later this year.
Platinum has followed the vaccine space for more than a decade and we have long hoped that technology advances would one day change the way vaccines are made. Using cell lines (where a permanently established cell culture multiplies indefinitely) has been one significant step along this path, but overall, the vaccine industry has remained a tight oligopoly.
In recent years, the potential to use mRNA as a therapeutic treatment and as a vaccine has emerged. We have been following the progress closely and invested in two companies in this space, Moderna and BioNTech, some time ago. The pandemic has placed mRNA and both companies firmly in the global spotlight. US-based Moderna was able to start clinical trials within 63 days of receiving the genomic sequence of the new virus. BioNTech has been slightly slower, but recently expanded its partnership with Pfizer and also entered a partnership with Chinese company, Fosun to develop its vaccine candidate. Curevac, another privately- owned German mRNA biotech backed by SAP co-founder Dietmar Hopp, is also busy developing a vaccine, while Sanofi recently expanded its alliance with biotech, Translate Bio.
Using mRNA for vaccine development is quite an elegant approach and Moderna and BioNTech have invested considerable effort in designing and selecting the best possible mRNA molecule for a respective protein of interest. It remains to be seen if it works, however, both companies have received support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and have large partners for various pipeline products. Some established vaccine makers are sceptical, but Moderna has been the first to take their mRNA to the clinic.
We are convinced that these multiple vaccine efforts (traditional and modern) will result in a product, potentially as a first-generation product that will give companies time to refine their efforts and develop the next generation of longer-lasting vaccines.
mRNA is a molecule that functions naturally in our bodies as an intermediary between our genes and our proteins. It is the blueprint for our proteins and essentially a copy of the gene encoding the protein. If designed and delivered correctly, cells will recognise the mRNA and start making the protein. For vaccines and therapeutics alike, the mRNA can be quickly designed (by the right team of scientists) in the lab once the scientists know which is the correct viral particle to make. Usually, several mRNAs are made and scientists quickly assess which one is the most suitable. Manufacturing these chemical molecules (or information molecules, as Moderna calls them) can be done with a much smaller manufacturing footprint and also at a fraction of the cost of making traditional vaccines or protein therapeutics, as it is not a protein, it is the information to make the end product. In the end, the 'active’ product, the vaccine or the therapeutic protein, is made by the person who receives the mRNA injection. Humans essentially function as the manufacturing site for the mRNA vaccine.
A global logistical exercise
Apart from the scientific approach that is being undertaken to combat the virus, this pandemic is also witnessing large- scale crisis planning and management in different countries.
Molecular testing has been a key pillar in managing the viral spread. It is clear, however, that the supply of these tests cannot fulfil demand. Each country has taken slightly different approaches to testing. Some countries are actively looking for asymptomatic infected individuals, while others are struggling to keep on top of the symptomatic patients. Testing guidelines will undoubtedly change over time and serological testing, whereby a test determines antiviral antibodies in a patient's blood, will complement molecular testing in the future.
In a pandemic, facts determine your management plan and as the facts change so should the plan. Many people worry when plans change, but in the crisis we are experiencing today, it is paramount that countries adjust their plans to address the changing dynamics.
Our knowledge of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the COVID-19 disease has rapidly grown and changed as physicians in different countries gained first-hand experience. Throughout this pandemic we have drawn on a number of sources, including the New England Journal of Medicine (NJEM), a weekly medical journal published by the Massachusetts Medical Society, Dr Anthony Fauci, one of the lead members of the White House Coronavirus Task Force in the US, the German federal government agency and research institute, Robert Koch Institute, along with a German virologist Professor Drosten (coronavirus specialist) and several of his colleagues.
These learnings and the exchange of these experiences is vital to form response plans. One of the key learnings in recent months has been the fact that this coronavirus can spread very quickly. This is due to its preference for residing in the upper respiratory tract, as highlighted above. This means it often causes milder symptoms that can go undetected. The biggest challenge is to break this rapid spread and protect vulnerable individuals. In an ideal world, everyone would be tested. A swab kit would arrive in your mailbox (similar to the bowel cancer test kit), you would take a swab, it would be collected by a courier and the results emailed to you in a matter of hours. What would be even better though, would be a molecular test that people can do themselves at home. This would quickly identify who is infected and who needs to self-isolate. Unfortunately, these tests are not available to us today, so the next best option is what is currently being practised in many countries: quarantine, social distancing, drive-through testing facilities, and tracing potential infections proactively. Sophisticated point-of-care testing that could be done at home or at the local medical centre is emerging rapidly, with companies such as Roche, Qiagen (soon to be part of Thermo Fisher) and Cepheid (now part of Danaher), key players developing this technology.
At the core of this pandemic, due to the rapid spread of the virus, is the ICU capacity of hospitals. In the current phase of the pandemic, the focus hence needs to be on ensuring we have enough ICU beds and ventilators. Globally, we are seeing different ICU capacities and thankfully we are seeing a move to central ICU bed co-ordination. Germany, for example, is moving to real-time monitoring of its ICU beds as well as transporting patients from neighbouring countries. All hospitals have to work together, which has been a challenge, particularly in the US. We have learned from Italy’s experience that it is important to have COVID-19 treatment centres protecting non-COVID-19 patients. This pandemic is as much a logistical and planning exercise as it is a scientific endeavour. It will highlight very quickly the shortcomings of our healthcare system along with our past desire to be as supply chain efficient as possible.
However, there will be a next phase to this pandemic, and that will be when we start to return to our offices and gradually begin to socialise again.
During the next phase it will be about recovered patients and keeping on top of regional outbreaks and next-generation diagnostic tests that identify antibodies to the virus. Many of these tests are currently receiving media coverage, however, I would caution that these tests are not yet ready to be used widely. The potential for false negatives is not a risk we want to take currently; it takes days to develop antibodies and hence molecular tests remain the best approach to detect an infection early.
However, the presence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the blood means the person has been infected sometime in the past and hence are now regarded as being immune, which will be important when we are ready to return to work. In Germany, for example, the debate is currently about issuing “immunity certificates” for those who show positive antibody titres in their blood. It is still unclear, however, how long this immunity will last. In the months to come, detection of the virus and our immunity will remain paramount until we have therapeutic options and a vaccine.
At Platinum, we have long believed that diagnostic tests will become a key pillar of healthcare, be that in oncology, inflammatory diseases or infectious diseases. The aim in healthcare should be prevention, which requires tools to detect changes in our body early with precision. This is the same with the current virus, if we can detect it quickly, we can prevent it spreading. This pandemic challenge has placed the healthcare industry squarely in people’s minds. It has shown how limited our arsenal of antiviral therapies is and highlighted how our approach to vaccine development has to be overhauled. In the world we are living today, with all the digital factory technology that is available, manufacturing vaccines strikes us as 'old style’. Given we have seen several coronavirus outbreaks in the last 18 years, it is more likely than not, that this coronavirus family will continue to cause us harm and hence having a vaccine, or possibly an annual coronavirus vaccination booster would be worthwhile investing in. We are firm believers that current events will change healthcare systems and most importantly, will highlight what a vital role biotechs play today.
The biotech industry is relentless in its search for new technologies and new therapeutics. Bankruptcies are rare and failure does not demotivate them, to the contrary, it motivates them.
For now, as Germany’s chancellor Angela Merkel recently said, the best therapy we have for SARS-CoV-2 is to stay at home.
 One nanometre is equal to one billionth of a metre.
DISCLAIMER: This information has been prepared by Platinum Investment Management Limited ABN 25 063 565 006 AFSL 221935, trading as Platinum Asset Management ("Platinum"). It is general information only and has not been prepared taking into account any particular investor’s investment objectives, financial situation or needs, and should not be used as the basis for making an investment decision. You should obtain professional advice prior to making any investment decision. The market commentary reflects Platinum’s views and beliefs at the time of preparation, which are subject to change without notice. No representations or warranties are made by Platinum as to their accuracy or reliability. To the extent permitted by law, no liability is accepted by Platinum or any other company in the Platinum Group®, including any of their directors, officers or employees, for any loss or damage arising as a result of any reliance on this information.
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